Showing posts with label astronomy. Show all posts
Showing posts with label astronomy. Show all posts

Monday, 1 June 2015

What is too many? The 1.1%

At the time of this post there are about 7,300,000,000 people. We extrapolate the world population growth of 1.1% a year, first to the past and then to the future:

  • The first couple, Adam and Eve, were born in the year 2, the Roman year of the consulship of Vinicius and Varus.
    Because:  2*1.011^y = 7300000000
    y = log(7.3E9/2)/log(1.011) ≈ 2013 years ago
  • The total mass of ordinary matter in the universe is about 1E53 kg. Suppose all matter can be used to mold 2E51 slim humans. Then if our species keeps growing by 1.1% annually, cosmic saturation will be reached within 10,000 years.
    Calculation:  7280000000*1.011^y = 1.45E53/69
    y = log(2.1E51/7.28E9)/log(1.011) ≈ 8726

This proves current demographics are historically unusual and highly unsustainable.
Indeed, what is too much? Growing by 1.1% annually it appears…
Strange, that we find such an increase of GDP relatively low for the economy of our country! China's exponential growth is down now to 7%, would you believe it?

At present all people (on and off the planet) count: 7,300,000,000.

Mouse over please ;-)